By the way, if you weren't paying attention to this "debt ceiling" hubbub...

...this is serious business.

The debt showdown has now begun to mimic the global warming debate, in that all rhetoric about consequences is framed probabilistically and speculatively, and some would like to pretend that there wont be a problem at all. The debt ceiling is different to the extent that many Americans and political leaders are convinced that, if we act to late, mitigation of the damage will be relatively easy. We can prioritize our payments, or use potentially illegal fallback strategies, or resolve the showdown a day late and cover for any shortfalls.

Reading the news this week, though, I've noticed two major shifts in reporting on the issue. First, consequences are being framed in less probabilistic terms. Second, it's become increasingly clear that the mitigation strategies will be ineffective.

In particular, this is really unsettling news.

The two most important takeaways:

1.) You don't need to default to spook financial markets. Remember how all of this deficit scare business began with concerns that a lack of confidence in US debt securities would cause a run? That is the crisis we feared, not a default. This could be that crisis. Not twenty years from now, when our debt gets "too big".     Now.




2.) What the treasury department does isn't as straightforward as most people like to pretend. There are a large number of different flows of funds at hands, and many depend on market operations. Which might make it more difficult to quickly clean up any mess or to prioritize payments than members of congress seem to realize.

Keep watching. There's way more at stake here than in the shutdown showdowns.

Ernest Becker on the Deficit

...we think the budget mess is a squabble between partisans in Washington. But in large measure it’s about our inability to face death and our willingness as a nation to spend whatever it takes to push it just slightly over the horizon.

That's David Brooks, not actually Becker, in today's NY Times. If you're unfamiliar with the reference, Becker's Denial of Death is a minor classic, known for its very brunt yet sober claim that death plays a large role in our lives that most people are not ready to acknowledge. Though David Brooks doesn't always get the political dynamics of Washington correct, he does deserve credit for eschewing the rhetoric of the political leadership, with all it's hand-waving, wonk-speak, and intentionally inoffensive superficiality, and trying his best to address the heart of our political problems, even when doing so is probably uncomfortable and unpalatable for popular audiences. I do think there's truth to what he says, but I also think it would be comforting to put this out of mind and go back to speaking about the debt like it's just a matter of hard math.

The great marathon transit trek, part 1: Philly

I went up to New York over the weekend, and I decided to make the trip there more interesting by seeing how many rail transit systems and urban landscapes I could explore in one day. In total, I was able to get to 5 heavy rail metro systems, 3 light rails, 1 commuter rail, with 4 urban walks in between. In the next few posts, I'll share a little of what I saw.

Philly

I began my journey with a quick foray into the metro-like components of Philadelphia's SEPTA system. For those who have never had the fortune (I wouldn't necessarily call it good fortune) to experience transit in Philadelphia, SEPTA is perhaps the most schizophrenic system in the world. Just look at the map.

Seems straightforward enough. But I'll comment nonetheless. The amazing thing about this map is that one has no idea what kind of train (or whatever) to expect on any given line, or if switching lines is an easy transfer or a transition to an entirely different system with different fares, etc. Looking at a Metro map in DC, one can be relatively sure that every Metro train and station will look pretty much like every other one. But in Philly, the map depicts subway lines, trolley lines, light rail lines, and commuter rail lines--and it's not clear which is which.

To make things better (that's schadenfreude, not optimism),  Philadelphia has four subway lines, each of which is nothing like the other. That's why there's no mention of a "SEPTA metro" on the map. The two primary heavy rail lines--the Broad Street and Market-Frankford lines--form something of a metro system, with a central transfer station at city hall, but there are still major differences between the two--in particular, the two lines run on different gauges (which means they are different technologies), and the broad street line has express service, while the Market line doesn't. What they have in common (besides the archaic token fare system), is that they are both relatively foul and old.

I took the Market line from 30th street to City Hall, and then switched to the Broad line, which I took from City Hall to Walnut/Locust.

Market-Frankford Train Approaching 30th Street

The stations are reminiscent of an unkempt, older Boston subway station, except without the lively buzz of activity or any attempt to convey that someone is trying to keep the system updated and modern (that is, without the charm). The fare is a token that one purchases from an attendant in a booth (like it used to work in Boston). Waiting for a train, one gets the sense that no new work (or maintenance, really) has been done to the station since the early 70s. And then the loud, creaky, screechy train finally comes bumbling down the track, and one begins to suspect that the same might be true of the subways cars. Admittedly, this was more the case on the Broad line than the Market line, but the difference was a matter of degree. In particular, there was an striking absence of professional-looking people on the Broad line, but that's probably because of where it goes (and doesn't go).

Inside a Market-Frankford car

Boarding the Broad Street Line

I mentioned four subways lines, but have only mentioned two so far. The third is actually only a "pre-metro", which is a fancy way of saying that it's a streetcar/trolley line that has a section with underground tracks and stations. Many, but not all, of the trollies in Philadelphia collect near 30th Street Station and enter the tunnel that the Market-Frankford line runs through. The trolly lines straddle the heavy rail line, and have more frequent underground stops than the heavy rail line does (visible in the first picture above). At least at 30th street, the platform was not shared between trollies and heavy trains, and it was not clear if it is possible to transfer without leaving and reentering the station. The trollies turn around underground at 13th street.

The last subway line is a real heavy rail metro, but isn't part of the SEPTA system at all (though it's on the map). I'll talk about it in the next post.

I didn't have time to ride the trollies or the various light-rail-type-trains that run out in the suburbs, but I did have time to walk down to the italian market and get a ridiculously awesome italian hoagie at Sarcone's. This is the sort of thing that Taylor Gourmet in DC is trying to emulate. And it's fantastic.